Wednesday
Oct242012
Will Apple own the tablet market(s)?
Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 3:00AM The iPad owns the premium tablet market in terms of sales and the iPad mini could perform a similar trick in the budget tablet market. The question is, do you think Apple will dominate in both budget and premium markets (even if the lowest priced iPad is £269) and do you think that any of the other tablets from Samsung, Google and Microsoft will compete with Apple's offerings?
Reader Comments (36)
I think so. Apple's been killing Android tablets since day one, and devices like the Kindle Fire HD and Nexus 7 really are different classes of device. In the popular mind, I believe iPad is synonymous with Tablet. Even for a savvy person such as myself, trying to distinguish between all the different Android tablets can give one a headache. With the iPad only 3 questions - size, capacity and cellular or not. Far easier to choose an iPad than any Android device.
None of the reviews I've read so far of the Windows RT devices have been particularly enthusiastic. There's an ambivalence in the reviews even when it's viewed overall with enthusiasm and I just don't see Windows RT being a huge player in the consumer tablet market - certainly not enough to challenge the dominance of the iPad. As far as I can tell, it's still the iPad and "everything else".
I agree with Donald. I think my wife would have preferred a 7" iPad instead of the 10" iPad3 she currently uses.
No effect on me though. I like my Nexus, and I will be sticking with it and similar until iOS UI matures into something more contemporary.
£269 is not budget to me!
Let's get to <£100...
Sadly, it looks increasingly so. While many, like myself, will recognise the gilded prison that Apple represents, the sheeple, education, public sector and corporations will simply choose the "best" device. And the best device is the iPad.
I agree with Neil that £269 is not budget. Also if I were still in charge of IT at a company, and which is a job I've done before, I suspect I would be recommending Windows 8 tablets to enable ease of integration with Windows desktops and back end services. But we don't much about MICROSOFT tablets.
Andrew, there are plenty of people for whom the iPad is genuinely the best tablet. Just as there are people for whom Android tablets present the best use case. I know someone who likes to upload digital photos from their camera and therefore finds the SD slot in their ASUS Transformer to be a godsend. Personally, I don't do that. But I love iOS and find the app selection to be the best across all the major platforms. Thus my informed, reasoned choice to buy an iPad.
I hate it when people call others "sheep" for choosing a product that is, by most standards, excellent and will delight them for years. It's unkind and, frankly, not warranted. Sorry, but it really gets my goat (pun intended).
It's not so long since the iPhone was in the same position. Android tablets will do the same to the iPad, the last few quarters sales figures already demonstrate that. It's inevitable that the iPad will individually outsell everything else, it's a single product. Collectively though Android tablets will become the market leader.
The iPad Mini looks unlikely to appeal to anyone who hasn't already got an iPad. Few people are going to look at their Nexus 7s and decide they have to swap. It's a shrunken iPad 2 to all intents and purposes, and another reactive Apple product to boot.
What happens with Windows 8 tablets will be interesting. So many new product lines out there that they could enter the market at a gallop or flop completely. I don't think anyone really knows, least of all Microsoft.
For me, the decision would be app-based and Apple would win, every time. Not just because of the number of apps (which can be irrelevant) but because of the number of tablet-specific apps. Android just isn't there - and I say this as someone who uses a 3G Galaxy Tab (original version).
If you factor-in the more premium build quality, unsurpassed customer service, stronger ecosystem and superior apps, it may well be that £70 isn't too high a premium. If I was buying a 7" tablet right now, it would be a no-contest.
Peter,
Those who genuinely consider their needs and choose appropriately are not 'sheeple' (by definition) and I fully respect their choice. It's the millions of people of will simply buy an iPad because it's an Apple iPad without doing any research that fall into that category.
Clearly neither you nor your friend are in that group as you weighed your options and made your choice appropriately and I have no quibble with that.
Regards,
Andrew
Thanks for responding, Andrew!
A study of the Apple ecosystem by NPD in April of this year (with 3000 participants) found that three out of four iPads are sold to people who already own other products such as the iPad, iPhone and Macbook Air. These products have acted as brand ambassadors or "gateway" products, giving consumers confidence to continue investing in the Apple ecosystem.
Far from being zealots, six in ten Mac owners also have a PC and nearly 30% of Apple brand enthusiasts own a non-Apple smartphone, too. There are a few good reasons why a household with Apple devices may choose an iPad over a rival platform. Forty percent of consumers value device interoperability, for instance, a current strength of iOS. Also, satisfaction levels with iOS devices such as the iPhone are very high indeed - more so than any other platform - and have been for the last few years.
So, the available evidence suggests that few people make an uninformed choice to buy an Apple product such as an iPad. In fact, most have exposure to other platforms and have all the information required to make a sensible decision.
It is easy to dismiss those who have come to conclusions different than your own as mindless followers of a fad or fashion but it's a lazy characterization.
Sorry - I don't mean to criticize you, specifically, but I see comments about "sheeple" or "iSheep" almost every day on the web and it irritates me just as much as seeing adolescent iPhone owners refer to "Fandroids".
I was going to pre order a mini but then I am thinking what's wrong with my iPad 2.
It still does everything I need. It's heavy so being lighter would be cool.
Now I was a short while ago in Carphonewarehouse. They have lots of tablets on show. And they all looked the same. If I was just after a web browser and email checker I would buy the cheapest.
But as mentioned above if you have other Apple gear staying with the brand does offer unity across the hardware and software.
I believe Google will get there. Just won't offer any customer service.
Peter,
Don't worry about the criticism - I'm a big boy - and I do think Apple make great products, but I also think that people walk into buying Apple iPads. A quick straw poll round the office of iPad-toting folk elicited the following responses....
- I already had an iPhone
- it's what the guy in PC World recommended
- I wanted a tablet and I went into the Apple store
- my brother had one and I liked it
Ok, so it's not statistically valid, but no-one here did any reasonable comparison with any other product. All of them are entirely happy with their iPads so Apple is doing something right, but it disappoints me that other products don't even get a look.
Regards,
Andrew
I think they would have done better at $299 over here (Canada/U.S.) It's a perception thing. If the competition is $249 and you're $299, it's $50 but that first number is still 2. But if the competition is $279 and you're $329, it's still $50 but looks much larger. But then Apple seemingly never worried about making it up on volume.
"A quick straw poll round the office of iPad-toting folk elicited the following responses...."
But that could be true of all tablets and phones. In my office, lots of people have Android phones and they only use them for the web and texting. They had no idea why they actually bought them apart from the fact they were cheap.
Sounds like three of these made a choice from a range: owning a related product and enjoying the experience, recommended by a store selling a range of products, and based on using one.
I rather think that most people do not over-think their technology decisions — they'll either have an idea from what they've seen / heard is good (whether through advertising or otherwise), or else just look at a range in store and buy whichever seems the best to them then. I would thought those of us who research in depth before parting with money are the exception?
Shaun,
I'm not sure that the responses would be the same for people who bought Android tablets. I think responses would be more like...
- it was cheap(er)
- I need to use it with a memory card
- I liked the widescreen format.
And for the phones, I don't think people will have made a choice between Android and iOS but they will have made a choice, whether it was a bigger screen, the way it felt in my hand, the colour of the body. Most of us walk into a phone shop, perhaps after a little online research, and play with the phones on the contract price point and then choose the favourite - a decision was made following some kind of comparison even if they can't recall why now.
But that comparison simply doesn't happen for large numbers of people who buy iPads. They only decide that they want an iPad.
Regards,
Andrew
It really shows the marketing success of Apple if true — or the weakness of other devices.
I guess the real question is whether this is perception or based on a research over a good number of people.
Shaun,
There's an opportunity for a LIM poll. Might be somewhat self-selecting but fun nevertheless.
Andrew
"But that comparison simply doesn't happen for large numbers of people who buy iPads. They only decide that they want an iPad."
That could explain the huge market share Apple has in tablets. I am sure many people just pick up Nexus 7's etc. on price when in a store, but that is not many people in total. Also, go into a shop and use all of the tablets- you may disagree, but the iPad stands out in many different ways and would likely sway many undecided people.
I am still, however, far from convinced that the percentage of people who buy just because it is a new Apple product is any higher than those who have loyalties to Samsung etc.
I think more people who don't know any better buy Apple products as it's seen as the safe and easy option. No-one ever got fired for buying Apple...
A while ago when my gf's mother really liked my Transformer Prime and was thinking of getting one I recommended she check out the iPad instead, because she's not particularly au fait with technology.
Apple products are an easy way into smartphones and tablets. Many people never need more than they offer and stay with Apple. That's fine, you can't criticise people for not needing the extra functionality Android offers.
Unfortunately the closed nature of the Apple ecosystem makes it difficult to leave, so I'm sure there are many people who'd like what Android has to offer but don't want to lose all their content and interoperability with other Apple stuff they may have bought. Open standards (for DRM, AirPlay etc.) would be better for the consumer but Apple only cares what's best for Apple (which sometimes also happens to be what's best for consumers).
People who buy Android will probably do so because they want something Apple doesn't offer (bigger screen, microSD slot, file system etc.) or they were advised to by a techie friend. Or they just don't like Apple and/or what Apple's doing to the industry.
However there is another difference. With most non-Apple products, even flagships, it's very clear that they've been made to a price. Apple tends to push the envelope more in terms of build qulity and design, despite mis-steps like Scuffgate.
Interestingly MS has taken a very similar approach to the design of the Surface, and it sounds as though they may have produced something that exceeds the iPad (although sadly not in performance, yet).
"I am still, however, far from convinced that the percentage of people who buy just because it is a new Apple product is any higher than those who have loyalties to Samsung etc."
I'm convinced. Even though my gf was pretty sure she wanted another Samsung phone because she liked her Galaxy S so much, she was open to the LG I put forward as an option.
Bear in mind that going from, say, a Samsung Android phone to an HTC Android phone is pretty simple and you can take all of your content and apps across. Leaving Apple is far more difficult.
And while Samsung's been throwing a lot of marketing at its phones and tablets it's still behind Apple in terms of market awareness and hype. It's getting there though, which is a double-edged sword.
By the way when I've gone into a shop and tried the new iPad I've been very unimpressed. They're invariably covered in grease and locked to a stand so you can't get a feel for them. Also you can't get onto the internet and there doesn't seem to be anything interesting installed. I really can't see what would sway people.
Unless you're talking about an Apple store; I haven't tried one of those (it'd be like when they tried to take Damien into a church).
"I'm convinced. Even though my gf was pretty sure she wanted another Samsung phone because she liked her Galaxy S so much, she was open to the LG I put forward as an option."
Yes, I could be wrong. Maybe there is a wider issue in that Android users don't tend to gain an attachment / loyalty to a brand and are more interested in what the specs etc. are. The fact that Apple 'owns' iOS means there is nowhere else to move anyway if they want to keep their apps etc.
"By the way when I've gone into a shop and tried the new iPad I've been very unimpressed. They're invariably covered in grease and locked to a stand so you can't get a feel for them. Also you can't get onto the internet and there doesn't seem to be anything interesting installed. I really can't see what would sway people."
It's night and day for me in terms of first impressions and how the iPad wins there, and my wife said the same in PC World a week ago. To quote her "Why would people buy the cheap plastic ones?" She knows little about tablets, but she felt the iPad looked in another class on first glance. That has to help sales.
This is a very interesting issue, perhaps going to the heart of consumer behaviours. Perhaps Apple users really do buy in to an "Apple ethos" or whatever you want to call it, in a way that users of other devices do not — perhaps there is some neurological definition which means that some people are more likely to be affected in this way than others, or perhaps it is something to do with the brand/product.
I wonder if it is any more complicated that people tending to stick with what works for them, though? If someone already has an Apple product and likes it, there's a good chance they'd go down that route again — in the same way, I tend to return to the same curry house in Newbury, because I enjoy the food. If a friend took me somewhere else, it might convince me to change, but it's effort to go out of the way to try different places, into the unknown, where there is an option which seems likely to deliver good results — I wonder whether, cognitively speaking, this is an easier decision to make, and is thus more likely.
Do people who have disliked Apple products after purchasing them, or have had bad experiences, instinctively buy another Apple product — I would guess not. Perhaps it's a case of success building on success?
I wonder whether where people go to buy is a factor? Everything looks crap in HMV, for example — I've never seen a more depressing set up for advertising technology...
My point of view is: Apple make first of all great looking devices and that just by itself is a major factor. Then they go for quality materials. Like I said recently, when competition starts to build devices in great looking materials (don't need to be expensive, just good looking), they will sell. People are presently pretty much locked into looks, vanity and so on.
But the iPads do stand out among the crowd, yes. The thing is: if you have the money, go for it! Prices of the iPad mini just popped up in Portugal. The basic one starts at 369EUR! What?!? Another 100EUR and you have the 10" version. But I'm sure it will sell. Why? Because those who have money just need to have the latest regardless of what they need it to do. People are holding back in food and cloths but are spending a lot in mobile... that's the way it is.
The new iPad mini is just about what I wanted, but I'm not getting one. I still think Apple make on purpose to have prices high so they can select their users. A top person in society doesn't want to be seen with a device that can be also carried by a simple low-class guy. Sorry, but that's how I look at it. And Apple can preserve that by setting their devices high.
On the tablets side, my guess is that google and microsoft along with other manufacturers will ramp up in the very near future and Apple will struggle if they will keep releasing the same "monotonous" OS and devices - look at iPad 4. What's that? a new device? or the same old iPad with a new processor?
I've read that in 2013 android will have full HD tablets and many other features like NFC will evolve and be made public as standard. I'm presently looking for tablet with HDMI capacity. Well... I had to forget the iPads... even a cheap android tablet costing 180EUR has HDMI output!
So, I'm pretty sure android/microsoft tablets will grow very fast in the future and still think Apple will struggle somewhere in the near future if they stay like this.
"They're invariably covered in grease and locked to a stand"
Usually, yes, but the same goes for all other tablet brands and devices such as e-readers. I'm not convinced that retail demonstrator units are much good at all at swaying the public, except, perhaps through manufacturer-owned retail chains such as Apple shops.
The word we've been skirting around is "fashion".
It makes boys wear their trousers around their knees, makes girls think that's cool, and makes a lot of people buy Apple devices, including iPhones that look great but are uncomfortable to hold and will spend their lives encased in cases.
Fashion has been moving away from Apple for some time now; it's a gradual process but it's probably the single biggest reason Apple's fallen so far behind Android in market share. It still has probably the most fashionable single phone, but it's just one amongst many.
The same will happen with tablets; the only question is whether it'll be MS or Android that takes the lion's share.
Apple will dwindle away again unless it can find another sector to revolutionise.
Anyway, the grease-covered iPads I was thinking of were in places like Carphone Warehouse etc. It removes any advantage the iPad might have in terms of looks. Personally I think my Transformer Prime looks way better than the iPad.
@Rui the 1080p Transformer Infinity has been out for a little while now. I'm still not convinced the higher res is justified in a normal-sized tablet given the trade-off in perofrmance and battery life.
"Fashion has been moving away from Apple for some time now; it's a gradual process but it's probably the single biggest reason Apple's fallen so far behind Android in market share."
No, that would be the price of the products and the huge range of Android devices out there.
"The same will happen with tablets; the only question is whether it'll be MS or Android that takes the lion's share. Apple will dwindle away again unless it can find another sector to revolutionise."
No way at all to know that. I would not even guess on that at the moment and there is no evidence to suggest that is happening. When I say evidence, there is no evidence to suggest that Android users are more engaged with their devices than Apple users, or even Nokia feature phone users. Market share means little when most of the profits are going to another platform.
Sounds reasonable to me — continued innovation is good!
But aren't most iPhones bought with a contract, so the real cost is hidden?
Doesn't happen so much with tablets but it's the iPhone that's lost market share.
And when it comes to choice, fashion would still outweigh more mundane considerations (such as form factor) for a great many customers.
I reckon the big screens on Android are the biggest more mundane consideration, but there's a fashion element there too.
"No way at all to know that"
Except history. Happened with Macs and iPhones; iPads are like a cross between Macs and iPhones. Apple's closed environments have their benefits but ultimately they always fall to more open environments.
"Market share means little when most of the profits are going to another platform."
Bloody capitalist! :op
I think the numbers of users is far more important. By your logic the diamond-encrusted phones are the current pinnacle and the "I Am Rich" app was the best app ever.
"But aren't most iPhones bought with a contract, so the real cost is hidden?"
As are most phones. High-end Android phones are not much cheaper than iPhones on contract.
"And when it comes to choice, fashion would still outweigh more mundane considerations (such as form factor) for a great many customers."
I disagree with the whole premise that the iPhone is fashion-led. If anything, it is being seen as uncool because there are so many of them and 'everyone's Dad has one'.
Just because lots of people choose the iPhone does not mean that they are not doing it for exactly the same reasons people choose Android phones- it just feels right for their needs.
So you're agreeing that price isn't a major factor?
"If anything, it is being seen as uncool because there are so many of them and 'everyone's Dad has one'."
Yes, now. And look what's happened to the market share since they stopped being so fashionable.
However I think you're over-stating their unfashionabillity; there's still a lot of "Want!" out there that has nothing to do with the looks, specs or OS.
"Apple is closed".
So Google, MS and Amazon are open? Google appears open, but reality is not that open.
All are relatively closed.
Google is open relative to Apple. Various manufacturers can make Android phones (and accessories) and you can even install non-Play apps and use a non-Play marketplace (e.g. Amazon).
It's not 100% open, but relatively speaking it's open. It's even open source.
The day is nearly done and I just want to thank everyone who contributed to the debate today. Really enjoyed it especially as the arguments were reasoned and well thought through.
Sleep tight.
Andrew
taken to polarised extremes, there are people who don't want to think too hard, and those who do enjoy thinking. Forcing the non-thinkers to think doesn't win you a customer.
http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/10/weve-located-the-reality-distortion-field-and-its-in-the-consumers-brain/
Some people just want something that works, that's consistent, simple to learn. They have other priorities than understanding technology. For them, there's Apple. That's fine. It doesn't make them better or worse than other people. However, Android of late offers a good out of the box experience that also satisfies most people's needs.
Some people want something that requires a time to master, that will allow them a lot of freedom to dig deep, something that will reward their endeavours with the ability to do things which are more sophisticated and complex. It's hard for an iphone to fulfil this, but an android phone can.
And the majority want something more in the middle.