Too many smartphones already sold for RIM and Nokia
The situation that RIM and Nokia find themselves in is not good at all, as we all know. The new BlackBerry and Lumia phones have had little impact on the wider market or the general public.
The current BlackBerry phones do not deserve to do well and I suspect that BlackBerry 10 will also not be enough to stop the slide into oblivion for RIM. There is nothing in the hardware or software that is compelling for the average consumer to choose above Android and iOS.
As for Nokia, choosing Windows Phone as a platform has not worked out so far and I can't help feeling that things will not change in the next 12 months while it tries to build up momentum for a platform that was simply too late to the game. Windows Phone is great, but it is fighting against millions of potential customers who are not willing to change platforms.
And that is the big problem facing both companies. People are highly unlikely to move from Android or iOS and there are already many millions of people on each platform. Some will move from iOS to Android for extra freedom and some will move from Android to iOS for the eco-system, but I can only assume that very few will move outside of these two.
I don't like saying this, but I feel that RIM's time has gone and that Nokia needs to build Android phones to succeed. It would take a major mis-step by Apple or Google for the other to have even a glimmer of hope.