The state of play (mobile operating systems)
Friday, July 13, 2012 at 2:59AM The state of the mobile industry will always be changing and we can naturally expect ups and downs for all of the big players. At this time, however, Android and iOS are very much dominant and to a level that all of the rest are starting to struggle to even get a minimal foothold. Let's look at the operating systems first-
Android- a healthy lead in smartphone market share with some catching up required in the tablet area. The new Google tablet may help along with Jelly Bean, but at this time I can only see Android moving upwards as the year passes. The iPad is doing exceptional business, but everyone I know has pre-ordered the Nexus 7 and this could put a dent in the overall market share for Apple. Whether this matters is open to debate because Apple is still controlling the money and so will be quite happy to continue at the current rate. If Apple does the right thing and releases a 7" iPad, it could seriously dent the competition all over again. I for one would jump on such a device and my current iPad 2 would be out the door. All of the talk about fragmentation on Android and the malware issues are sort of valid, but in the grand scheme of things (and with so many users it is very grand) it matters little to the average Android user. Android captures every area of the potential smartphone market from very low-end budget phones to high-end monsters that you can tweak to oblivion. As I said, Android is on the up and quite possibly the only platform that will continue to grow at a speedy rate through 2013.
iOS- we all know the story of iOS and how it has grown over the past half-decade. The growth will continue and the iPhone 5 will sell in huge numbers of course, but there are some areas that Apple may need to address to keep the momentum going. It may need to make small tweaks to allow users to use their own browsers, email clients and the like and as users become more aware of what their phones and tablets can do, they may have to respond. Apple is not selling to the power user, but to anyone it can sell to and as these people look around and see what phones like the Galaxy SIII have to offer, they may be tempted. Simple solutions like the recent Podcasts app and the (on the surface) small changes coming in iOS 6 are perhaps taking evolution a step too slowly.
Windows Phone- it should have a larger market share than it currently has. With Nokia and Microsoft behind it and a system that really is exceptionally good it has still failed to gain any traction at all. This is likely purely because of the dominance of the above to operating systems rather than any inherent fault with Windows Phone, but we are where we are. I believe that Windows 8 could change things a lot for Microsoft and I would not be surprised to see the company gain market share in both the tablet and smartphone arena. One thing is for sure- they won't give up.
BlackBerry- it would be so easy to just say 'finished', but there has to be more to this platform than that. RIM still has options open to it, but it needs to move very quickly. The platform could be used by other manufacturers and if investment came from a company like HTC, they could help develop it to being BlackBerry 10 to market quicker. However, I can only feel negative vibes to the platform, the hardware and the leadership at this time.
As for the rest, I can't see Bada or any other platform breaking through for some time to come. We are in danger of mobile becoming Android and iOS which sounds bad, but in the past we have only had three players and got through that OK.
All News
Reader Comments (8)
In regards to Windows Phone, I would suggest that the hardware limitations; memory expansion and permissible buttons, combined with repeatedly alienating their user base by cutting off backward compatibility is not really helping them gain traction, despite the association with the Nokia brand strength. And being a late starter out of the gate.
The Windows 8 desktop and mobile association may be of benefit in the long term, but I cannot see Windows 8 flying forward without a massive surge in touch screen desktop computers or tablet PCs, and Windows Phone 8 may be hobbled by being version 1 again.
So from that perspective, the lack of traction is hardly surprising.
Windows Phone has a larger market share in China than the others. So there is hope especially with Windows 8 coming. This I see as the last attack from MS. It either wins or fails here.
RIM will fade into something else. Its handset business is finished long term.
Apple and Android will continue to fight it out in court.
But there is a new OS coming which might frighten all the above.
Tablets, Apple created the market. Like Nokia and Smartphones (they were the first with volume and range and innovations like the Communicator) Apple will lose its way and unfortunately will be less innovative. But they'll be back with other great innovations ;-)
Gavin, you mean the Firefox thingy? I think that's aimed at budget phones, and I don't see how it's going to gain traction.
WIndows Phone won't succeed until MS can tie it into Windows. They're moving that way pretty quickly, mainly by having Metro apps run on both OS's.
A totally non-techie friend of mine just told me she's jail-broken her iPhone; she's only had it 2-3 months (her first smartphone). I haven't yet asked her why she did it, but it does suggest something's seriously lacking for her on iOS.
However the biggest problem for iOS is that it's no longer seen to innovate. It doesn't matter if it's already perfect, that's not the way human nature works. If it's not improving in big ways then it's not as cool as something that is, i.e. Android. We like new stuff. A large part of Apple's market is fashionistas; if it's no longer considered fashionable then Apple's in trouble.
Blackberry's done. It may still be possible for them to recover but they won't because their leadership is clueless.
Android has quite a few problems. Fragmentation is an issue to developers and to users. There are still plenty of apps out there that don't support ICS. There are plenty of users frustrated because they're stuck on Ye Olde Androide. Ex-colleague of mine really wanted to set his phone up as a wifi hotspot so that his tablet could connect through it; he couldn't do it even using the likes of PDANet because his version of Android didn't support it. He ended up buying a new phone.
With tablets Android will do the same to Apple as it did on phones unless Windows 8 does it instead. Apple's still by far the strongest but MS especially has some inherent advantages. Running Windows apps is its massive USP both on tablets and on phones.
@Bug Blatter - yes Firefox. Couldn't remember the name when I posted.
Sadly people root or jail break to get apps free. Some to add functionality too.
Why does the iPhone need to innovate? The 4S still has an amazing camera, superb music quality, complete Eco system, excellent integration with hardware and software, best app store, good signal and it just works.
@ Bug Batter & Gavin, If I had an iPhone, Jailbreaking would be a certainty, just to add functionality which iOS is never likely to have (at least not in the foreseeable future).
Gavin, the iPhone needs to innovate because people like new stuff. New stuff is cool. Same old same old isn't cool, no matter how good it is.
7" - I am just not entirely convinced that is where I want to be. With a 4 to 4.7inch phone I think I want my tablet to be 10" for watching movies, browsing etc. I think the 7" is just too small for that. I think it is a great size for a book, but then a 4 to 4.7" screen does a great job of that and less to hold.
So while I think that tablet is great spec wise - not sure it would do the job for me.